Märkte
Alle schauen auf den Bitcoin – warum man so weitere Chancen am Kryptomarkt verpasst
Adrian Fritz, 21Shares
Adrian Fritz / Bild: 21Shares
Die Zinsentscheidung der Fed wurde von vielen mit Hochspannung erwartet – darunter auch von Krypto-Investoren und Mitgliedern der zugehörigen Branche. Denn die um 0,5 Prozent (50 Basispunkte) reduzierten Leitzinsen bringen auch billigere Kreditkosten und generell Anreize für risikobehaftete Assets wie Kryptos mit sich.
1. Was bedeutet die aktuelle Zinssenkung für die gesamte Kryptoindustrie und für die größten Krypto-Assets wie BTC und ETH – sowohl makroökonomisch als auch in Bezug auf die Preisentwicklung?
Kurzfristig könnte eine Zinssenkung um 50 Basispunkte dem Markt signalisieren, dass sich die Wirtschaft verlangsamt, und auf zugrunde liegende Probleme hinweisen, die vielleicht noch nicht offensichtlich sind. Dies könnte sowohl traditionelle als auch digitale Anleger verunsichern und möglicherweise eine anfängliche Volatilität auslösen. Langfristig gesehen haben sich Bitcoin und andere digitale Vermögenswerte in der Vergangenheit in einem Niedrigzinsumfeld jedoch gut entwickelt.
Dieses Phänomen ist auch in der untenstehenden Grafik ersichtlich.
Der Fed-Leitzins im Vergleich zum Bitcoin-Kurs seit 2019
2. Könnte die Zinssenkung in den nächsten Monaten neue Investoren für Kryptoassets anziehen?
Historisch gesehen hat sich Bitcoin in einem solchen Umfeld wie erwähnt gut entwickelt. Eine Zinssenkung um 50 Basispunkte könnte eine wachsende Liquidität signalisieren, eine risikofreudige Stimmung entfachen und eine starke Rallye bei Bitcoin auslösen, da Investoren nach höheren Renditechancen weiter entlang der Risikokurve suchen. Mit über 6 Billionen Dollar, die derzeit in Geldmarktfonds liegen, könnte eine solche Zinssenkung Investoren durchaus dazu veranlassen, in riskantere Anlagen wie Bitcoin und Ethereum umzuschichten.
Adrian Fritz ist Head of Research
der Forschungsabteilung von 21.co, Dachunternehmen des
Krypto-ETP-Emittenten 21Shares. Fritz absolvierte ein Masterstudium an
der Hult International Business School in San Franciso und begann seine
Karriere als Finanzanalyst. Danach war er als Broker und im
Investmentbanking tätig. Vor seinem Einstieg bei 21Shares war er unter
anderem bei Signature Management Consulting in Barcelona und als Analyst
bei Cellnex Telecom in Zürich tätig.
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